By Tina Reed
March 29th, 2022
U.S. health care spending is likely to grow at about the rate of inflation over the rest of the decade after the pandemic fueled a nearly 10% jump between 2019 and 2020, federal experts said Monday.
The big picture: The CMS actuaries’ projections in Health Affairs came with plenty of caveats. But if trends hold, out-of-pocket spending is going up, as is spending on private coverage, Medicare and Medicaid.
What they’re saying: “This outlook is contingent on a virus that has evolved and surprised at every turn — and could do so again,” the authors wrote.
By the numbers: National health spending surged 9.7% in 2020, rising from $3.8 trillion in spending in 2019 to $4.1 trillion in spending in 2020.
- Spending growth is projected to drop to less than half of that, 4.2% in 2021, or about $4.3 trillion.
- The actuaries project 4.6% spending growth in 2022, or about $4.5 trillion.